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    REVUE D’ECONOMIE FINANCIERE n°156,  4e trimestre 2024, 251 pages

    publications

    “Financial Innovation in Developing Countries” (collective under the direction of Pierre JACQUET and Jean-Michel SEVERINO) “Changing the way we look at emerging and developing countries, as well as the institutions and public actors that support them”, this is the ambition of this collective work led by two economists, leading experts on these themes.   Indeed, the image of these countries has too long been associated with conservatism, especially for Africa.  This trend is compounded by the negative view of institutions and an archaic perception of the banking and industrial sectors, which in many respects are inherited from the colonial era. The authors focus on showing the consequences, particularly in the first part, in terms of efficiency and financial inclusion, of the development of financial innovation that is underway in these countries. The second part deals with the use of finance to achieve specific impacts, while the third addresses the role of financial innovation in addressing international debt problems and their management.                                                                                                               The panorama outlined in this new issue of the REF is certainly far from exhausting the theme of financial innovation and its role in development. As for the contribution of developing countries, some of them “have reached the technical frontier and have financial systems that are as efficient as those of developed countries”.                                                       Finance is changing its nature. Financial innovation continues at a rapid pace, supported by the digital revolution. It is time, the authors emphasize, to reflect on public and regulatory policies that will maximize the benefits and manage the risks.  There is no doubt that this new publication, which is relevant in every respect, makes a decisive contribution.           Review by   Jean louis   CHAMBON

    February 12, 2025 / 0 Comments
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    SENIK Claudia, ASKENAZY Philippe. Gouverner. La démocratie, un enjeu crucial, Odile Jacob, 368 pages.

    publications

    This collective work is a synthesis of CEPREMAP’s latest work on democracy, in response to the major challenges of the 21st century. The first chapter, written by Fanny HENRIET and Katheline SCHUBERT, focuses on the energy transition to a net-zero world. This investment-intensive transition will be long, difficult, and costly, and the long-term impact on growth is not clear. Two worldviews are exposed to climate change: the pessimistic belief that the solution can only come from economic downturn or collapse; and optimistic faith in life-saving technological progress. However, effectively tackling climate change avoids high adaptation costs. The authors have a number of levers; some are more effective, others easier to implement, but none can be used alone. In the second chapter, Jean-François LASLIER explores innovative voting methods, such as “vote by evaluation” as opposed to “single member vote” and their impact on the results of elections. A passage is dedicated to Nicolas de Condorcet, economist under Turgot, and a key figure in the theory of voting. The author presents the work carried out from several French and US elections and concludes on a positive note. Voters are ready to experiment and express themselves in these new ways of voting, which would leave democracy intact. Thomas Renault then gave an overview on the use of Twitter to measure the well-being of French people. Before becoming X following Musk’s takeover in November 2022, the Twitter platform was accessible to researchers to collect opinions, thoughts and emotion metrics. In the study presented, the database consists of more than 23 million messages sent between 2010 and 2022. Once the sample has been constructed and corrected for biases (the effect of robots, among others), it turns out that it is possible to construct relevant and robust indicators to measure French morale in addition to surveys carried out in a more traditional way. In a fourth chapter, Quentin LIPPMAN presents his study on the effect of the “parity law” of 6 June 2000 on the number of women elected, their place in the political sphere and in the business world. While the law has increased the number of women on boards, it has not affected the highest positions in the company. The acceleration effect is not significant for two main reasons: the time-consuming nature of positions in the hierarchy seems incompatible with their greater family responsibilities. Women are also less ambitious than men and less eager to occupy these positions of power. Finally, Philippe ASKENAZY and Thomas BREDA address the theme of democracy at work, which is reflected in the close links with staff representation and collective bargaining. They also reflect on the obstacles to the implementation of a democracy at work, reflected in the collective expression of employees’ interests and aspirations. They end with a call to strengthen the capacities and competences of the social partners in order to resume social dialog. The authors are members of CEPREMAP (Center for Economic Research and its Applications). Its mission is to provide an interface between the academic world and public decision-making. Daniel COHEN was its director from 2005 to 2023. Since her disappearance, Claudia SENIK has taken over its management. Column by Sophie Friot

    February 12, 2025 / 0 Comments
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    Jean-Claude TRICHET (dir.), La Bonne Gouvernance (Good Governance), Eds PUF, December 2024, 402 pages.

    publications

    The collective work directed by J-C. Trichet, President of the Academy in Moral and Politics Sciences in 2023 and is Current President of the Turgot Prize jury, is of unparalleled prestige among the 5,000 works reviewed by members of the Turgot Club since 1987.  The book brings together a prestigious group of former Prime Ministers and Ministers, European commissioners and senior officials, heads of international institutions and ambassadors, central, international and national bankers, etc., who have held the highest positions over the past half-century. The book covers governance in all its dimensions, international and national, public and private, past (the great models), present (the improbable devices) and future (the expectations). The book also has the distinction of being written in different styles, such as a keynote address, a political speech, a legal brief, a collection of memories, etc., but it nonetheless retains its coherence and power of attraction, qualities that are increasingly rare in post-modern political and economic literature. The book is organized into five chapters. The first deals with the private governance practiced by large international, industrial, and banking companies, with the testimonies and recommendations of P. Barbizet, then A. Minc, H. Davies and E. Roman. The second chapter focuses on the governance of major international institutions with contributions from O. Renaud-Basso on the governance of the IBRD, then P. Lamy on the WTO, J. de Lamassoure on the effects of monetary policies and C. Lagarde on supranational governance. Chapter 3 deals with “green governance” with E. Faber who explains the foundations of the ISSB (International Sustainability Standards Board) strategy, then Mr. Mac Carney who reflects on good global environmental governance, while L. Fabius draws lessons from COP22 in 2016. Chapter 4 is devoted to “good governance and good public administration”. E. Balladur analyzes the successive reforms to the Constitution of the Fifth Republic, while L. Fabius analyzes the different forms of governance practiced at the international and national levels. J-C. Junker traces the evolution of European institutions; M. Pébereau stresses the importance of a rapid recovery of French finances; F. Villeroy de Galhau presents the governance of the Banque de France and M de Boisdeffre reflects on the role of users in Western democracies. Chapter 5 finally compares the different global visions of governance with a reflection by J-D. Levitte on the progress of global diplomacy since the 1990s; T. de Montbrial wonders about the future of the global economic system. The late J. Baechter strives to conclude by distinguishing “good governance”, effective and/or profitable ” and “good governance”, moral and equitable, whose combination is becoming increasingly difficult. Review by J-J. Pluchart

    February 5, 2025 / 0 Comments
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    Olivier Pastré and Jean-Marc Sylvestre, The True Story of the Financial Crisis, Perrin Publishing, 2008, 300 pages (Turgot Prize 2008)

    Hommages,  Olivier PASTRE

    The authors are among the first to trace the subprime crisis – which is not, in their opinion, comparable to that of 1929 – to measure its severity, and then to identify the winners and losers. They propose new ways to regulate financial markets and the creation of new financial vehicles. They believe that the responsibilities of the crisis are collective, each stakeholder (central banks, banks, regulators, rating agencies, traders, states, savers) having not sufficiently measured both the nature and the extent of the risks of the financialization of the economy. Despite these excesses, the authors nonetheless celebrate the virtues of financial globalization, money creation and fiscal discipline. The outcome of the crisis lies in the common will of the many actors involved to thoroughly reform financial markets and global regulatory systems, to revise IFRS prudential standards (deemed pro-cyclical) and to reorganize the banking sector. This last issue is essential, because banks are major providers of credit to SMEs and households, and therefore, creators of productive jobs. A clear and documented analysis of the ins and outs of the last crisis. Olivier Pastré and Jean-Marc Sylvestre are respectively university professor and economic journalist.

    February 5, 2025 / 0 Comments
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    THE IMPACTS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ON FINANCIAL SERVICES

    Chroniques

    Seminar organized by the Association Europe-Finances-Régulations (January 29, 2025) On the eve of the AI summit, the AEFR organized a seminar to answer questions about the “transformative potential” of AI in financial services: how can it change practices in customer relations (KYC), cyber-security and the fight against fraud and money laundering. AI and France’s Competitiveness Philippe Aghion (professor at the Collège de France) wrote a report in 2024 entitled “Our ambition for France”, the conclusions of which are « reasonably optimistic » for our country. Symbolic, numerical and generative AI, as well as LLMs, contribute overall to improving the efficiency of production processes, making companies more competitive, profitable and job-creating. Recent studies show that AI is helping to accelerate innovation and increase patent applications. If is well regulated, AI’s contribution to French growth would be around 1% per year for about ten years, before falling due to system obsolescence and business concentration. However, the impact on employment would be very uneven depending on the sector of activity, the companies, the types of employment and even the workstations. Only 10% of jobs would be completely or partially threatened in Western countries.  The latest mapping of employment risks shows the importance of developing research on production processes and, in particular, on their flexibility. AI and stock market fraud Corentin Masson (chief AI engineer at the AMF) underlines the interest of AI in the investigations conducted by the AMF on the practices of listed companies, particularly in terms of compliance with sustainability, the fight against fraud (insider trading, price manipulation, market abuse, etc.). The objective of the AMF is to secure financial transactions, which implies in particular securing databases (aligned with the European taxonomy). He recommends publishing non-financial reports in HTML format with XDRL tags, in order to facilitate comparisons between companies and sectors of activity, and to set usable standards. AI and the fight against money laundering Fabrice Desprez (CEO of Discal, a subsidiary of KBC group) estimates that money laundering worldwide is worth nearly $4 trillion, with only $2 billion detected and $200 million recovered. At KBC, exposure to money laundering risk is assessed on the basis of 150 criteria. Approximately 10% of customers present risks, which are detected based on the particularity of the transaction and the customer’s score. He considers that the development of cryptos creates an additional risk of money laundering, and that Regulation (EU) 2023/1114 (known as MICA), which establishes uniform rules for crypto-asset issuers, is insufficient. He also regrets the lack of exchanges between banks on this subject. He also denounced the excessive regulation of banking activities. AI and Banking Fraud Mathilde Clauser (director at Revolut) presented the services offered by her bank (50 million customers), whose priority objective is to ensure the security of the operations of its business and retail customers.  She distinguishes between unauthorized fraud and “authorized fraud.” The latter covers in particular the extortion of funds by identity theft (visual and/or sound)  thanks to social networks (in particular META and X). She demonstrated, through use cases, the contributions of AI in detecting these frauds. She estimates that more than 90% of fraud is detected by IA at Revolut. AI and compliance management. AI and compliance Frédéric Boulier (Chief Compliance Officer at Oracle) presents the latest developments in AI for compliance management. He revealed that nearly €250 billion is spent each year by banks to combat financial insecurity and verify the compliance of sustainability reporting. He admits that unsupervised learning by generative AI creates value because it improves KYC and the number of supervisors (or data scientists) responsible for controlling and making better use of the extra-financial reporting of large companies, and soon, of mid-caps and SMEs, as well as correcting the biases observed in the software used to exploit the data of the reports. AI and financial rating Vincent Gusdorf (Managing Director at Moody’s) analyzed the contribution of AI in the financial rating process of listed companies (1). He argues that the latest generation software (such as GPT 4o and Deepseek) has a “reasoning capacity” that helps accelerate their efficiency in detecting information gaps from financial security issuers. Despite these advances, he believes, however, that investment risks are still insufficiently measured by rating agencies. Report written by J-J.Pluchart (1)       read the chapter by J-J. Pluchart, “Towards an ESG rating of credit securities issuers”, in C.de Bossiseu and D Chesneau, Réussir le transition énergétique et écologique, Eds Eska, 2024.

    February 5, 2025 / 0 Comments
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    STIGLITZ Joseph E. The Roads of Freedom. Economics and Good Society, Allen Le Libri, 2024, 320 pages.

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     J.E Stiglitz, Nobel Prize winner in economics, published his latest book in 2024, entitled The Roads of Freedom. Economics and Good Society, which has just been translated into French. In it, he traces his “intellectual journey over the last half-century”, which has been marked by multiple theoretical currents, economic crises and social events. In his book, the author analyzes the economic systems implemented in several countries and internationally, according to the type of risk they pose to markets and their main actors: businesses, citizen-consumers and public institutions. He supports systems that ensure a “balance between economic and political freedoms”. He distinguishes several types of freedoms: “to work, to enjoy the fruits of one’s labor, to own property and manage it, to participate in a free market, but also, to be free from want and fear”. He shows the complexity of the concept of freedom, whose determinants, inherited from the history of each nation-state, are more or less compatible. J.E. Stiglitz deals with the issue of freedom through a discourse analysis – or “rhetoric” – and the actions of the main actors of economic and social life, including governments and the media.  Freedom has an “intrinsic link with the notions of equity, justice and well-being.” Its enjoyment is directly conditioned by the dominant economic system in the country. The exercise of these freedoms should contribute to “the development and realization of the potential” of citizens. The author is thus led to analyze the different forms of capitalism, and especially that of neoliberal capitalism – which he calls “unfettered” – inspired by Hayek and Friedman and became dominant in the late 1970s. According to Stiglitz, this system is based on a deliberate underestimation of its externalities and on the mistaken belief in a strong efficiency of economic, monetary and financial markets. He focuses his analysis on the system applied in the United States, which he recognizes the strengths – including dynamism and flexibility – but denounces the weaknesses, mainly economic instability and social insecurity. He denounces the biases of measurement systems of economic exchanges and social inequalities, which contribute to “shrinking the societal well-being”. J.E. Stiglitz therefore proposes to “rebuild the global economic and legal system”.  He rejects international capitalism in its present form, preferring a more balanced form of capitalism oriented towards a “shared societal prosperity”. As a good neo-Keynesian, he advocates a new form of “progressive capitalism” coupled with a “social democracy” based on “knowledge – innovation and living together – and on a decentralized economy regulated by institutions adapted to the management of the common good”. Among the exemplary social actors, he cites some major American universities, cooperative associations, etc., but he castigates the current excesses of the policies of certain rulers. He is also critical of some press, whose “misinformation and disinformation” maintain divisions and populism. In his book, J.E. Stiglitz refers to the work of the most recognized economists, with whom he has cooperated or opposed. He often refers to the thinking of Adam Smith, as set out in his Theory of Moral Sentiments. J.E. Stiglitz (Nobel Prize in Economics in 2001) was chief economist of the World Bank. He is the author of numerous books and scientific articles, as well as several official reports, including in 2008, the one on the change of instruments for measuring French growth (jointly with Amartya Sen and Jean-Paul Fitoussi. review by JJ  Pluchart

    February 5, 2025 / 0 Comments
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    OLIVENNES Denis, La France doit travailler plus… et les français être mieux payés, Eds Albin Michel, 2025, 152 pages.

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    The latest book by Denis Olivennes has a specific and urgent objective, which he summarizes in its title: How to increase the productive power of France and better remunerate work?. He believes that the French are victims of “outdated software”: “spending and taxing more while working less”. He engages in a classical analysis of the factors of the “Great Decline” of France, comparing its main economic indicators to European standards, and in particular to those of Germany.  He deplores the propensity of the French to increasingly prefer leisure to work and to maintain a “culture of conflict” based on slogans such as “tax the rich” and “the praise of laziness”. He also denounces the tendency of elected officials to adopt populist and electoral postures and their propensity to prefer “taxing the rich” to reducing public spending. Beyond this commonplace observation shared by most economists and sociologists, the author makes three main proposals to restore the value of work: stabilize public debt through budgetary savings and not through new taxes on businesses and consumers; promote work by revaluing it through a reduction in social security contributions and taxes; increase labor productivity through a “Work Shield” based on a faster diffusion of innovation, better training, favorable conditions for returning to work after unemployment, and an extension of the retirement age. He also advocates an intergenerational transfer of resources from retirees to the working population, by “shifting the tax base from work to land and environmental protection”. The author draws his sources from the best scientific and professional articles. His strength of conviction and his “common sense” reasoning are served by a direct and didactic style. Denis Olivennes (a graduate of the Ecole Normale and the Ecole Nationale d’Administration) is president of a press, publishing and television group. He is the author of numerous articles and books. Notes by J-J.Pluchart

    February 5, 2025 / 0 Comments
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    Why Gold Remains a Cornerstone of Investment

    Chroniques

    Gold continues to shine as a major asset in an uncertain economic and geopolitical environment. Several factors sustain this trend, both through physical demand and the opportunities offered by gold mining. Here’s why this precious metal remains a central pillar of investment portfolios. Since the beginning of the year, the price of gold has reached historic records, peaking at over $2,685 in September. This impressive surge is primarily driven by the central banks of emerging countries. These institutions have accumulated over 1,000 tons of gold in 2023, an unprecedented volume. Their strategy aims to reduce reliance on the US dollar and diversify reserves in response to currency fluctuations. Moreover, the decline in US interest rates has strengthened the appeal of gold. As the ultimate safe haven asset, gold benefits from arbitrage between the precious metal and other asset classes, particularly bonds, in an environment of low yields. Gold’s status as a safe haven remains undisputed. Commercial tensions and geopolitical conflicts, such as those in Ukraine and the Middle East, have amplified its protective role. During uncertain periods, investors flock to this precious metal, driving its demand and price higher. Forecasts suggest that gold could reach between $2,700 and $3,000 per ounce by 2025. Beyond physical gold, gold mines present significant appreciation opportunities. With record margins and strong results, gold mining companies remain attractively valued. Analysts predict a potential 25% increase in mining stock values, particularly if gold prices continue to rise. Gold also holds strategic value for investors seeking diversification. With low correlation to other asset classes, it acts as a stabilizer for portfolios, reducing overall volatility. By investing in products such as bullion, coins, or specialized funds, investors can effectively diversify their holdings while mitigating risks. In conclusion in a world marked by increasing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, gold asserts itself as an essential safe haven and a strategic lever for investment portfolios. Whether through physical gold or investments in gold mining, the precious metal retains its luster. By 2025, it is expected to further solidify its central role in global financial markets. Column written by Benoit Frayer

    January 29, 2025 / 0 Comments
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    VOY-GILLIS Anaïs, Pour une révolution industrielle, Eds La Cité, 2025, 275 pages.

    publications

    The author traces the processes of industrialization and then, from the 1980s, the deindustrialization of France. She questions the reasons and the stakes of the transition from an industrial society to a post-industrial society. She bases her reasoning on the notion of the imaginary, which provides the link between the symbolic and the real. The industrial imagination is filled with myths, illusions, even utopias, but it is also haunted by fears, prejudices and simulacra. The author analyzes the myths of industrialization, from the “catechism” of Saint Simon under the Second Empire to the challenges of reconstruction and “national champions” during the “glorious thirties”.  She attributes the cause of the deindustrialization of France – which quickly became a “country without factories” – to purely economic factors, such as the relocation of production to third countries, attributable to the search for an ever more optimized value chain, but also to more cultural causes, such as the devaluation of “manual labor”, the downgrading of technological sectors and the abandonment of learning.   Anaïs Voy-Gillis then strives to recognize the ways in which to reconstruct an imaginary favorable to the reindustrialization of France. She favors new activities located in France rather than the relocation of old ones. She explores projects that promote sustainable development and environmental protection, as well as high value-added industries in the fields of high technology, the food chain, luxury and culture. She criticizes France’s “start-up nation” policy, which is more of a slogan than a strategy based on structured networks and a deep digital culture. She advocates reforming the roles of the investing state, national education, research communities and business financing channels. The book is well documented with references to philosophy, historical reminders and practical examples.   Anais Voy-Gillis is a doctor of geography and the author of several books on industrial history. Note by Jean-Jacques Pluchart

    January 29, 2025 / 0 Comments
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    LEMAITRE Frédéric, CINQ ANS DANS LA CHINE DE XI JINPING, Editeur TALLANDIER,2024, 283 pages.

    publications

    The author, a connoisseur of China, takes us on a fascinating journey into China through the profound changes he has witnessed under the leadership of the new Master, XI JINPING. Until he came of age, XI suffered the bullying that followed the fall of his father, Vice Premier and close associate of President MAO, and then the humiliations of the Cultural Revolution. It was during this time that his political commitment was born. Since Mao, China has experienced a moderate but steady improvement in its economy and the living conditions of its population, but it is since Xi Jinping’s presidency that this has accelerated. A change of pace, driven by an ambition to economically surpass its great rival, the United States of America, and to propose a new model of world order. The concept of a “Global Approach” best describes the strategy adopted by China under Xi Jinping, which has been successfully translated into many sectors: Research, Trade, International Relations, Education, Military, Nuclear, Space Conquest, Environment… This remarkable expansion is facilitated externally by the growing dependence and increasing weakness of the West, and internally by the proverbial passivity of the Chinese people. The Chinese population appreciates the improved living conditions, reduced corruption, and improved security. The authorities tolerate a certain freedom of criticism about decisions deemed unnecessary or too restrictive. Apart from a few closely monitored and imprisoned dissidents, the population shares the official historical narrative but ignores, or pretends to ignore, the persecution of minorities: Tibetans, Uyghurs and the restrictions on religious practices. As a counterpoint to this optimistic picture for China, the author evokes some future clouds: aging population and low birth rate, more educated youth therefore a priori more sensitive to the values ​​of the West… Frédéric LEMAITRE, “Le Monde” correspondent in China Hubert Acaraz

    January 29, 2025 / 0 Comments
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