Since the launch in 2022 by Open AI of the first Chat GPT application, the development of generative AI (IAg) has been one of the main issues of concern for academic researchers and experienced AI practitioners, as well as for authors of science fiction novels. Most publications focus on its functional aspects and socio-economic impacts, but some of them reflect the diversity and acuity of the questions and concerns raised by the meteoric rise of AI, blockchain and Large Language Models (LLM). They engage in various approaches to these developments (descriptions, practical examples, case studies, etc.), but few of them, like Philip K. Dick or Isaac Asimov, practice the art of the novel or short story. This is the case of Gauthier Dombreville’s book, which deserves special attention for its originality and creativity. It is organized into nine short stories featuring imaginary situations that could be triggered by future developments in AI, autonomous driving, managed traffic, instant exchanges, voice assistants, digital twins, image generators, etc. The author recalls the projects imagined and implemented by the leaders of GAFAM – and in particular the “prophecies” of Mark Zuckerberg, founder of Meta. He then presents these situations in the manner of science fiction novels. He uses concrete examples to show the dangers of “crazy digital innovations”, the loss of control of black boxes, overly intelligent assistant robots, new humanoids, etc. Although presented as a “vacation read”, the book encourages reflection on the distressing and dehumanizing characteristics of the new “artificial paradises” engendered by IAg solutions. Reading allows us to glimpse some unsuspected externalities of business management. The author is an engineer with a passion for science fiction. Review written by J-J. PLUCHART
Olivier LASCAR, DEEP FAKE. L’IA au service du faux, Eds Eyrolles, 2025, 195 pages.
The book is doubly original in its subject matter – “hyper fakes” or deepfakes made possible by AI – and in its style, which is both precise and spontaneous. It presents the evolution of counterfeits, fakes, simulations, manipulations… throughout the ages. It shows that AI – especially in its generative version that appeared in 2022 with the ChatGPT solution – has accelerated the movement of disinformation, some of whose objectives, contrary to the ethics of AI, aim to hide the truth (“post-truth”), to disguise reality (“hyper-reality”), to simulate an object or influence a subject (nudging). This propensity of AI to “falsify reality” has been multiplied by increasingly massive data processing, mainly from exchanges on social networks. It is also due to the interoperability of communication vectors (voice, images, videos,texts), but also to the development of software between geopolitical blocks, nation-states, political currents, social groups, etc. The author provides a wealth of examples, some well-known, some less so, of fake news, cheap fakes and deep fakes, with tragicomic or dramatic consequences, but he is above all engaged in a philosophical (or rather philological) reflection on the representations of reality due to Plato (the “myth of the cave”), to Kant (the “phenomena”), to Baudrillard (the “simulations and simulacra”), to Debord (the “society of the spectacle”), to Benjamin (the “loss of authenticity”), to Rivault d’Allone (the “weakness of the true”) and to Guerouanou (his doctoral thesis on the “vertigo of anthropotechnics”). Olivier Laskar analyzes the ongoing research on falsification and simulation techniques, but also on the detection of fakes and plagiarism (debunking) and the tracing of fakes (water making). In particular, he presents the French project Moshi, which foreshadows the conversational robots of tomorrow, whose image and voice simulate “almost to perfection” the exchanges and emotions of subjects in a given situation. This new “fake technology” is developed by the offer of easily accessible open source software, emanating from start-ups and academic research laboratories. These developments fuel the practices of nudging (influence), green washing (greening of projects), social bashing (denigration)…, but they also raise new, more philosophical questions about the notions of truth and reality, normal and paranormal. Olivier Laskar (engineer) is editor-in-chief of the digital division of the journal Sciences et Avenir. note by J-J.Pluchart
Philippe AGHION, Anne BOUVEROT, I.A. Notre ambition pour la France, Eds Odile Jacob, 275 pages.
This book presents the official report of the Study Commission on Artificial Intelligence created by the government of Elisabeth Borne in September 2023. The Commission was tasked with presenting “operational, realistic and ambitious proposals supported by a long-term, comprehensive and objective vision”. AI is ubiquitous in public debate, although it is not new. Alan Turing, the British mathematician and cryptologist considered to be its founder, was already interested in the ability of a machine to imitate a conversation in 1950. However, the generative AI that emerged in 2022 represents a decisive turning point in this new technology. Through a written or oral dialogue interface with humans, the machine generates content in the form of text, images, sound, video or code, opening up a field of automatable possibilities. This technological revolution, with its considerable potential for progress, affects all areas of activity and all social groups. Although Europe – and France in particular – have real assets in terms of AI, they seem to be victims of a feeling of helplessness and technological downgrading, unlike China and the United States, which have made AI the pillar of their power strategy and the engine of their development. The “Aghion – Bouverot Commission” has identified, detailed and quantified 25 recommendations grouped into six main lines of structuring actions, considered essential if Europe and France want to lead a policy of deployment and control of the potential of AI; immediately launch an awareness and training plan; redirect savings towards innovation and create a “France & AI” fund; make France a major center of computing power; facilitate access to personal data while respecting intellectual property, assume the principle of an AI exception in public research and finally promote global governance of AI. The proposed plan corresponds to an annual commitment of around 5 billion euros for the next five years, of which 45% will be mobilized in technological and industrial investment and 35% in the dissemination of AI in the economy. This represents an increase of about 0.3% in public spending, knowing that the cost of inaction would be much higher and would put France at risk of historic downgrading. Philippe Aghion is a professor at the Collège de France, INSEAD and the London School of Economics. Anne Bouverot chairs the board of directors of the ENS and co-founded Abeona, which works for the development of responsible AI. Chronicle by Ph ALEZARD
THE NEW DOCTRINES OF CENTRAL BANKS
Benoît Coeuré and Hans-Helmut Kotz (eds) Revue d’économie financière-REF (Financial Economics Review) No. 144, 2022 The latest issue of the REF answers the main questions raised by the current revision of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy. It brings together the governors of several central banks and recognized monetary experts. It combines both theoretical and practical approaches to the issues raised by the revision of the ECB’s strategy. It is currently the best French-language source for reflection on the contemporary monetary economy. In the introduction, Benoît Coeuré and Hans-Helmut Kotz draw lessons from the financial crises that have occurred since 2008. They note that central banks have been able to adapt their strategies to changes in their economic and financial environments through the coordinated use of conventional and unconventional instruments. Central banks have been true to their mandates, focusing on the fight against inflation and supporting economic growth through an “inexorable decline in interest rates.” They note that the current economic situation requires the implementation of a new monetary policy. How can we redirect savings towards consumption and investment, initiate disinflation, combine the monetary and fiscal policies of States, support energy and climate transitions, and regulate crypto-assets? In the first part, the authors compare the monetary doctrines applied by the ECB (P-R. Lane) and the FED (R-H Clarida) respectively. They question the effectiveness of unconventional measures (low interest rates, forward guidance, purchase of public debt, liquidity support) and explore the possible new approaches of central banks in a more demanding economic environment, marked by a “double shock” of supply and demand (F. Villeroy de Galhau, V. Brignon, and B. Cabrillac). They analyze the changes in strategies (O. Issing) and the possible exceptional measures in order to practice a “flexible targeting of inflation” (O. Schumacher). In the second part, the experts discuss the ways of “budgeting monetary policies”, recalling that central banks are not in principle intended to intervene in the fiscal policies of governments (S-G. Cecchetti, K-E. Schoenholtz), but that in practice, the ECB’s accommodative policies were intended to support the private economy, but have in fact encouraged the fiscal drift of certain states, particularly in southern Europe (A. Orphanides). In a third part, the authors analyze the new challenges that central banks must face in order to promote energy and climate transitions, as well as to deal with the development of cryptocurrencies. M. Derer, D. Dohrmann and J. Gerik question the role of the ECB in hedging the financial risks generated by climate change, while M. Thiemann assesses the impacts of monetary policies on the management of the Covid crisis. M. Aglietta and N. Valla trace the history of digital currencies and identify the roles of central banks in their regulation and in the creation of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Finally, L. Scialom measures the societal responsibility of central banks in crisis management, while P. Berès shows that since Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” in 2012, central banks have replaced welfare states. Note by J-J. Pluchart
EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION IN QUESTION
Jean-Jacques Pluchart Directive 2022/2464 on the publication of sustainability information by companies based in the European Union – also known as the CSRD (Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive ) – sets a new framework for the extra-financial reporting of listed or unlisted companies, large companies, mid-caps and SMEs. Its implementation is expected to take place over the period 2024-2026. Its transposition into national law was due to take place by 6 July 2024 at the latest, but on 26 September the European Commission had to issue a warning to 17 Member States, including Germany, for delays in transposition. This reprimand has provoked reactions in several EU countries – notably in Germany – where elected officials have described the regulatory process as “technocratic”, stating that the CSRD is difficult to apply in its current form, particularly by mid-caps and SMEs. Its premature application would risk weighing on the competitiveness of companies in the Old Continent and thus, generate a distortion of competition between European industries and American and Chinese industries in particular. An impact study of the implementation of the CSRD confirmed that its implementation in Germany would entail additional compliance costs estimated at 1.6 billion euros for German companies alone. This estimate has obviously been contested by environmentalists. However, the Commission has recognized the validity of this argument and has proposed limiting the handicap of European companies by reducing their extra-financial reporting requirements by 25%. In her program, presented in November 2024, the President of the Commission reaffirmed the importance of the Paris Agreement (2015) and opened the possibility of a relaxation of the timetable for the transposition and application of the directive. The debate has just been revived after the latest statements by the new American president, affirming his desire to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement and to free the American market from certain environmental and social obligations. Indeed, the ISSB (International Sustainability Standards Board) published on June 26, 2023 the IFRS S1 and S2 (Sustainability 1 & 2) standards which are applicable on a voluntary basis to financial years beginning on or after January 1, 2024 by listed companies of all nationalities, while the European Commission adopted, on July 31, 2023, the more stringent ESRS (European Sustainability Reporting Standards), whose compliance in the European Union has been made mandatory by the CSRD. The regulation of the environmental transition therefore remains under debate within the European Union.
REVUE D’ECONOMIE FINANCIERE n°156, 4e trimestre 2024, 251 pages
“Financial Innovation in Developing Countries” (collective under the direction of Pierre JACQUET and Jean-Michel SEVERINO) “Changing the way we look at emerging and developing countries, as well as the institutions and public actors that support them”, this is the ambition of this collective work led by two economists, leading experts on these themes. Indeed, the image of these countries has too long been associated with conservatism, especially for Africa. This trend is compounded by the negative view of institutions and an archaic perception of the banking and industrial sectors, which in many respects are inherited from the colonial era. The authors focus on showing the consequences, particularly in the first part, in terms of efficiency and financial inclusion, of the development of financial innovation that is underway in these countries. The second part deals with the use of finance to achieve specific impacts, while the third addresses the role of financial innovation in addressing international debt problems and their management. The panorama outlined in this new issue of the REF is certainly far from exhausting the theme of financial innovation and its role in development. As for the contribution of developing countries, some of them “have reached the technical frontier and have financial systems that are as efficient as those of developed countries”. Finance is changing its nature. Financial innovation continues at a rapid pace, supported by the digital revolution. It is time, the authors emphasize, to reflect on public and regulatory policies that will maximize the benefits and manage the risks. There is no doubt that this new publication, which is relevant in every respect, makes a decisive contribution. Review by Jean louis CHAMBON
SENIK Claudia, ASKENAZY Philippe. Gouverner. La démocratie, un enjeu crucial, Odile Jacob, 368 pages.
This collective work is a synthesis of CEPREMAP’s latest work on democracy, in response to the major challenges of the 21st century. The first chapter, written by Fanny HENRIET and Katheline SCHUBERT, focuses on the energy transition to a net-zero world. This investment-intensive transition will be long, difficult, and costly, and the long-term impact on growth is not clear. Two worldviews are exposed to climate change: the pessimistic belief that the solution can only come from economic downturn or collapse; and optimistic faith in life-saving technological progress. However, effectively tackling climate change avoids high adaptation costs. The authors have a number of levers; some are more effective, others easier to implement, but none can be used alone. In the second chapter, Jean-François LASLIER explores innovative voting methods, such as “vote by evaluation” as opposed to “single member vote” and their impact on the results of elections. A passage is dedicated to Nicolas de Condorcet, economist under Turgot, and a key figure in the theory of voting. The author presents the work carried out from several French and US elections and concludes on a positive note. Voters are ready to experiment and express themselves in these new ways of voting, which would leave democracy intact. Thomas Renault then gave an overview on the use of Twitter to measure the well-being of French people. Before becoming X following Musk’s takeover in November 2022, the Twitter platform was accessible to researchers to collect opinions, thoughts and emotion metrics. In the study presented, the database consists of more than 23 million messages sent between 2010 and 2022. Once the sample has been constructed and corrected for biases (the effect of robots, among others), it turns out that it is possible to construct relevant and robust indicators to measure French morale in addition to surveys carried out in a more traditional way. In a fourth chapter, Quentin LIPPMAN presents his study on the effect of the “parity law” of 6 June 2000 on the number of women elected, their place in the political sphere and in the business world. While the law has increased the number of women on boards, it has not affected the highest positions in the company. The acceleration effect is not significant for two main reasons: the time-consuming nature of positions in the hierarchy seems incompatible with their greater family responsibilities. Women are also less ambitious than men and less eager to occupy these positions of power. Finally, Philippe ASKENAZY and Thomas BREDA address the theme of democracy at work, which is reflected in the close links with staff representation and collective bargaining. They also reflect on the obstacles to the implementation of a democracy at work, reflected in the collective expression of employees’ interests and aspirations. They end with a call to strengthen the capacities and competences of the social partners in order to resume social dialog. The authors are members of CEPREMAP (Center for Economic Research and its Applications). Its mission is to provide an interface between the academic world and public decision-making. Daniel COHEN was its director from 2005 to 2023. Since her disappearance, Claudia SENIK has taken over its management. Column by Sophie Friot
Jean-Claude TRICHET (dir.), La Bonne Gouvernance (Good Governance), Eds PUF, December 2024, 402 pages.
The collective work directed by J-C. Trichet, President of the Academy in Moral and Politics Sciences in 2023 and is Current President of the Turgot Prize jury, is of unparalleled prestige among the 5,000 works reviewed by members of the Turgot Club since 1987. The book brings together a prestigious group of former Prime Ministers and Ministers, European commissioners and senior officials, heads of international institutions and ambassadors, central, international and national bankers, etc., who have held the highest positions over the past half-century. The book covers governance in all its dimensions, international and national, public and private, past (the great models), present (the improbable devices) and future (the expectations). The book also has the distinction of being written in different styles, such as a keynote address, a political speech, a legal brief, a collection of memories, etc., but it nonetheless retains its coherence and power of attraction, qualities that are increasingly rare in post-modern political and economic literature. The book is organized into five chapters. The first deals with the private governance practiced by large international, industrial, and banking companies, with the testimonies and recommendations of P. Barbizet, then A. Minc, H. Davies and E. Roman. The second chapter focuses on the governance of major international institutions with contributions from O. Renaud-Basso on the governance of the IBRD, then P. Lamy on the WTO, J. de Lamassoure on the effects of monetary policies and C. Lagarde on supranational governance. Chapter 3 deals with “green governance” with E. Faber who explains the foundations of the ISSB (International Sustainability Standards Board) strategy, then Mr. Mac Carney who reflects on good global environmental governance, while L. Fabius draws lessons from COP22 in 2016. Chapter 4 is devoted to “good governance and good public administration”. E. Balladur analyzes the successive reforms to the Constitution of the Fifth Republic, while L. Fabius analyzes the different forms of governance practiced at the international and national levels. J-C. Junker traces the evolution of European institutions; M. Pébereau stresses the importance of a rapid recovery of French finances; F. Villeroy de Galhau presents the governance of the Banque de France and M de Boisdeffre reflects on the role of users in Western democracies. Chapter 5 finally compares the different global visions of governance with a reflection by J-D. Levitte on the progress of global diplomacy since the 1990s; T. de Montbrial wonders about the future of the global economic system. The late J. Baechter strives to conclude by distinguishing “good governance”, effective and/or profitable ” and “good governance”, moral and equitable, whose combination is becoming increasingly difficult. Review by J-J. Pluchart
Olivier Pastré and Jean-Marc Sylvestre, The True Story of the Financial Crisis, Perrin Publishing, 2008, 300 pages (Turgot Prize 2008)
The authors are among the first to trace the subprime crisis – which is not, in their opinion, comparable to that of 1929 – to measure its severity, and then to identify the winners and losers. They propose new ways to regulate financial markets and the creation of new financial vehicles. They believe that the responsibilities of the crisis are collective, each stakeholder (central banks, banks, regulators, rating agencies, traders, states, savers) having not sufficiently measured both the nature and the extent of the risks of the financialization of the economy. Despite these excesses, the authors nonetheless celebrate the virtues of financial globalization, money creation and fiscal discipline. The outcome of the crisis lies in the common will of the many actors involved to thoroughly reform financial markets and global regulatory systems, to revise IFRS prudential standards (deemed pro-cyclical) and to reorganize the banking sector. This last issue is essential, because banks are major providers of credit to SMEs and households, and therefore, creators of productive jobs. A clear and documented analysis of the ins and outs of the last crisis. Olivier Pastré and Jean-Marc Sylvestre are respectively university professor and economic journalist.
THE IMPACTS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ON FINANCIAL SERVICES
Seminar organized by the Association Europe-Finances-Régulations (January 29, 2025) On the eve of the AI summit, the AEFR organized a seminar to answer questions about the “transformative potential” of AI in financial services: how can it change practices in customer relations (KYC), cyber-security and the fight against fraud and money laundering. AI and France’s Competitiveness Philippe Aghion (professor at the Collège de France) wrote a report in 2024 entitled “Our ambition for France”, the conclusions of which are « reasonably optimistic » for our country. Symbolic, numerical and generative AI, as well as LLMs, contribute overall to improving the efficiency of production processes, making companies more competitive, profitable and job-creating. Recent studies show that AI is helping to accelerate innovation and increase patent applications. If is well regulated, AI’s contribution to French growth would be around 1% per year for about ten years, before falling due to system obsolescence and business concentration. However, the impact on employment would be very uneven depending on the sector of activity, the companies, the types of employment and even the workstations. Only 10% of jobs would be completely or partially threatened in Western countries. The latest mapping of employment risks shows the importance of developing research on production processes and, in particular, on their flexibility. AI and stock market fraud Corentin Masson (chief AI engineer at the AMF) underlines the interest of AI in the investigations conducted by the AMF on the practices of listed companies, particularly in terms of compliance with sustainability, the fight against fraud (insider trading, price manipulation, market abuse, etc.). The objective of the AMF is to secure financial transactions, which implies in particular securing databases (aligned with the European taxonomy). He recommends publishing non-financial reports in HTML format with XDRL tags, in order to facilitate comparisons between companies and sectors of activity, and to set usable standards. AI and the fight against money laundering Fabrice Desprez (CEO of Discal, a subsidiary of KBC group) estimates that money laundering worldwide is worth nearly $4 trillion, with only $2 billion detected and $200 million recovered. At KBC, exposure to money laundering risk is assessed on the basis of 150 criteria. Approximately 10% of customers present risks, which are detected based on the particularity of the transaction and the customer’s score. He considers that the development of cryptos creates an additional risk of money laundering, and that Regulation (EU) 2023/1114 (known as MICA), which establishes uniform rules for crypto-asset issuers, is insufficient. He also regrets the lack of exchanges between banks on this subject. He also denounced the excessive regulation of banking activities. AI and Banking Fraud Mathilde Clauser (director at Revolut) presented the services offered by her bank (50 million customers), whose priority objective is to ensure the security of the operations of its business and retail customers. She distinguishes between unauthorized fraud and “authorized fraud.” The latter covers in particular the extortion of funds by identity theft (visual and/or sound) thanks to social networks (in particular META and X). She demonstrated, through use cases, the contributions of AI in detecting these frauds. She estimates that more than 90% of fraud is detected by IA at Revolut. AI and compliance management. AI and compliance Frédéric Boulier (Chief Compliance Officer at Oracle) presents the latest developments in AI for compliance management. He revealed that nearly €250 billion is spent each year by banks to combat financial insecurity and verify the compliance of sustainability reporting. He admits that unsupervised learning by generative AI creates value because it improves KYC and the number of supervisors (or data scientists) responsible for controlling and making better use of the extra-financial reporting of large companies, and soon, of mid-caps and SMEs, as well as correcting the biases observed in the software used to exploit the data of the reports. AI and financial rating Vincent Gusdorf (Managing Director at Moody’s) analyzed the contribution of AI in the financial rating process of listed companies (1). He argues that the latest generation software (such as GPT 4o and Deepseek) has a “reasoning capacity” that helps accelerate their efficiency in detecting information gaps from financial security issuers. Despite these advances, he believes, however, that investment risks are still insufficiently measured by rating agencies. Report written by J-J.Pluchart (1) read the chapter by J-J. Pluchart, “Towards an ESG rating of credit securities issuers”, in C.de Bossiseu and D Chesneau, Réussir le transition énergétique et écologique, Eds Eska, 2024.