Jean-Jacques Pluchart
Is the rise in crude oil by more than 70% over the last six months changing the equation of the global energy transition? The replacement of fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal) by alternative energies (solar, wind, biomass) is in principle governed by their differential prices. The level of $105-110 reached in May 2026 by a barrel of crude oil (Brent) should in principle make most new energy sources competitive, and the risks of shortages caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should encourage European and Asian countries to promote their domestic energy sources.
Despite these incentives, the decision-makers of the companies that consume the most energy still seem hesitant to make the long-term investments needed for each link in the value creation chain of the various energy sources: production, mass transport, distribution, consumption. The stock market prices of the stakeholders in these chains are still undervalued compared to those of the dominant groups in the fossil fuel sectors. The governments of consumer countries are slow to implement massive plans to support the development of alternative energies.
There are various explanations for this hesitation. The volatility of crude oil and natural gas prices is due to the uncertainty surrounding the outcomes of the Ukrainian and Iranian conflicts. A significant drop in prices following their settlement would compromise the profitability of projects undertaken in alternative energy sectors. Are investors subject to game theory and its law of minimum regret? In the most indebted countries, such as France, the room for manoeuvre to support energy supply and demand remains limited. The financing of green investments remains hampered by the uncertainty surrounding their long-term profitability, the foreign sources of supply of certain components and their supply infrastructure, as in the case of electric cars and solar panels.
For all these reasons, while the latest conflicts are helping to change the strategies of the private and public stakeholders involved in the energy transition, their unpredictable outcomes and the inconsistency of public policies mean that it is not yet possible to see all the effects.