This very concise book deals with a subject that is very much in the news: the decline in the birth rate. This has also been a concern for most governments for several years. The angle chosen by the author is interesting insofar as he is primarily concerned with the impact of this demographic phenomenon on the economy, which it affects significantly. This book is based on recent research to make a diagnosis of France before expanding its analysis to a global scope.
The decline in the birth rate in France has been steady since the second half of the 18th century, with only one real reversal during the “Glorious Thirty”. The recent acceleration of this decline and the increase in the number of deaths today are leading to a crossing of the curves, which is creating economic concern. Only the large net migration has made it possible to observe an increase in the population. Although for a long time a number of children per woman of around 2.1 has been considered a figure that allows the renewal and safeguarding of social and pension systems, the current figure of 1.6 children per woman is cause for concern. This trend is generally shared in most countries, except in a number of African countries or in the United States in the future due to high immigration.
This factual situation will pose problems for the financing of social security and pensions, despite an increase in the rate of the working population, with an increase in the number of elderly people, who are, however, in poorer health. All this is expected to lead to a decline in economic growth with a reduced workforce, a decline in business innovation and an increase in automation.
Governments have launched programs to try to halt this decline in the birth rate with numerous initiatives such as job security for women or tax measures, but these have generally proved ineffective, whether due to time constraints, particularly with women working more, or also biological constraints with the arrival of children later in life, which have overall lowered the number of children per woman. The alternative to this situation is often the integration of immigrant populations who generally have more children, even though this solution is highly controversial in terms of social acceptability and future impact.
The structural factors behind this low birth rate are very well described, starting with the socialisation of risks, which allows an interesting parallel to be drawn between pensions and fertility. Indeed, there is a paradox in the fact that generous pensions ultimately do not encourage people to have large families. The emancipation of women has also reduced the need for a large number of children, which could be seen as security for the future. The decline in marriages, which are often later, reduces the childbearing period, as does celibacy, which is more often imposed than chosen and particularly affects men without children, whose numbers have increased significantly. On the other hand, a child is today often considered a parental investment, both in terms of optimising the time dedicated to them and financing their education, with quality largely taking precedence over quantity.
Faced with a structural change whose future is not completely clear, the author recommends that we adapt our economic and social model to this demography. There are obviously opportunities linked to degrowth, particularly environmental ones, even if the impact of the number of inhabitants must be qualified by the lifestyle observed since the 1960s. This also makes it possible to rebalance the use of resources between rich countries and developing countries, with quite different trends in birth rates. In the short term, this situation should make it possible to save on public finances with fewer unemployed people or less funding, particularly for education. This situation will also open up significant “Silver Economy” opportunities for many companies.
To take a longer-term view, however, it is necessary to prepare for the impact of this decline on the economy: investing in innovation and human capital to increase productivity, enhancing skills, better integrating young people, mobilising older people and reforming the social protection and pension system (in particular through supplementary schemes).
In conclusion, the author draws a parallel with the recent awareness of climate change and urges us to organise ourselves quickly to deal with the impact of the falling birth rate on the economy in the short and medium term.
Pauline ROSSI is Professor of Economics at the Ecole Polytechnique
Olivier STEPHAN