The year 2022, with its two major events, the Russia-Ukraine War, the awakening of a cold war between the USA and China, as well as the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, marking the end of collegial management in favor of an autocratic Neo-Lenino-Marxist management, marks the end of a thirty-year cycle, which began in 1989 with the fall of the Berlin Wall. The period that is beginning sees the War Economy succeeding the Peace Economy, fueled by an explosive cocktail of four concomitant crises: an energy crisis, a democratic and societal crisis, a debt crisis and an environmental crisis. The author already perceives the new characteristics of this War Economy: a shift in value from demand to production – the one who controls their productive apparatus is the master; the replacement of trust by mistrust; an arbitrariness that replaces the law; a re-establishment of borders replacing free trade. A new way of shaping trade relations; the transactional approach is strangling respect for fundamental values – the triumph of the “deal by deal” approach, of opportunism and negotiations are no longer based solely on power relations, but on dependency relations. Therefore, we are going to live in a planet of chaos. We must prepare for it because we are witnessing the forced marriage of geopolitics and the economy if these two worlds want to continue to prosper. After having thus defined his observation of the world, the author endeavors to illustrate this evolution by recalling recent developments in the industrial fields, that of components or even AI, but also by analyzing the long-term strategic decisions of the main global players, for whom success is assessed today by the relationship of interdependence measured by the trade balance and the balance of current payments and no longer by the evolution of GNP. A new ESG: “Energy, Security, War” is therefore opening up and only those who know how to adapt to its requirements will resist or even prosper. The author concludes his work by analyzing the probable impacts of this “new neo-governance” on the major economic flows such as inflation, debt, and monetary stability and, consequently, on the evolution of a new geopolitics of monetary flows and their allocations, in China, the United States of America, and Europe. Those who succeed in merging geopolitics and economics will be the big winners in the entry into war economics. The author, former portfolio manager at Fidelity Investments in London and Boston, then founding partner of KDA Capital, a European equity fund long only until 2010, David Baverez is based in Hong Kong, and is currently an investor and essayist. He is also a columnist for L’Opinion and the author of several books. Column written by K WANTZ O’ROURKE
PAPACONSTANTINOU G., PISANI-FERRY J., The New Rules of the Game. How to Avoid Global Chaos, Threshold, 125 pages. (Title translated by the author of the book review)
As the geopolitical blocs of the United States, Europe, China, and the “Global South” clash, the authors question the new desirable forms of collective action on a global scale. They note that in most areas, global governance is incomplete or even non-existent. After a threefold analysis – legal, economic and geopolitical – to identify the constraints related to international order, the authors make recommendations to make it more efficient. They identify nine areas of common concern that require a new form of international cooperation: public health, climate, digital economy, international trade, (international) macro-finance, migration, international competition, banking regulation and taxation. The efficiency of cooperation implies mastering six factors in each area: common identification of the problem, shared source of expertise, consensus on the principles of action, transparent reporting mechanisms, evaluation of results and adaptation of instruments and the establishment of trusted institutions. The authors note that these factors are generally present in the area of banking regulation, but that, conversely, cooperation is insufficiently – or not at all – organized in the areas of digital and migration. In other areas, the upstream phases are rather advanced, but they are still poorly regulated downstream of the processes. They draw three lessons from their findings. The first is that the multilateral system based on rules covers only part of global interdependence. The second is that each of the three lenses (legal, economic, and geopolitical) is insufficient on its own to ensure governance of a given area. The third is that some advances in one area deserve to be better analyzed and extended to other areas. The authors tackle an ambitious topic that is both multidimensional and evolving. Their arguments are supported by references to the best sources and by a clear and didactic style. George Papaconstantinou was Minister of Finance of Greece and Jean Pisani-Ferry is a senior fellow at Brugel and the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Review by J-J. Pluchart
Jean-Claude TRICHET (dir.), La Bonne Gouvernance (Good Governance), Eds PUF, December 2024, 402 pages.
The collective work directed by J-C. Trichet, former President of the Economic and Social Council in 2023 and President of the jury of the Turgot Literary Prize, is of unparalleled prestige among the 5,000 works reviewed by members of the Turgot Club since 1987. The book brings together a prominent group of former prime ministers and ministers, European commissioners and senior officials, heads of international institutions and ambassadors, central, international and national bankers, etc., who have held the highest positions over the past half-century. The book covers governance in all its dimensions, international and national, public and private, past (the great models), present (the improbable devices) and future (the expectations). The book also has the distinction of being written in different styles, such as a keynote address, a political speech, a legal brief, a collection of memories, etc., but it nonetheless, retains its coherence and power of attraction, qualities that are increasingly rare in post-modern political and economic literature. The book is organized into five chapters. The first deals with private governance as practiced by large international, industrial, and banking companies, with the testimonies and recommendations of P. Barbizet, followed by A. Minc, H. Davies and E. Roman. The second chapter focuses on the governance of major international institutions with contributions from O. Renaud-Basso on the governance of the IBRD and subsequently, P. Lamy on the WTO, J. de Lamassoure on the effects of monetary policies and C. Lagarde on supranational governance. Chapter 3 deals with “green governance” with E. Faber who explains the foundations of the ISSB (International Sustainability Standards Board) strategy, then Mr. Mac Carney who reflects on good global environmental governance, while L. Fabius draws lessons from the COP22 in 2016. Chapter 4 is devoted to “good governance and good public administration”. E. Baladur analyzes the successive reforms to the Constitution of the Fifth Republic in France, while L. Fabius analyzes the different forms of governance practiced at international and national levels. J-C. Junker traces the evolution of European institutions; M. Pébereau stresses the importance of a rapid recovery of French finances; F. Villeroy de Galhau presents the governance of the Banque de France and M de Boisdeffre considers the role of users?? in Western democracies. Finally, chapter 5 compares the different global visions of governance with a reflection by J-D. Levitte on the progress of global diplomacy since the 1990s; T. de Montbrial wonders about the future of the global economic system. The late J. Baechter strives to conclude by distinguishing “good governance”, effective and/or profitable and “good governance”, moral and equitable, whose combination is becoming increasingly difficult. Review by J-J. Pluchart
