Jean-Jacques Pluchart
The many stakeholders involved in Artificial Intelligence are questioning the ability of generative AI models and LLMs (large language models) to generate profits for their designers and productivity gains for their users. The latest report from the MIT (Massachusetts
Institute of Technology) entitled “The GenAI Divide: State of AI in Business 2025″, notes that 95% of generative AI programmes launched since 2022 have still not achieved
their profitability targets among publishers and American user companies. It is true that global spending on AI peaked in 2026, with investment projects estimated at €2.5 trillion worldwide, having more than tripled since 2023. After sharp price increases, the fear of severe stock market corrections is intensifying, and the most recognised experts seem to be unable to predict the timing and extent of the corrections.
However, the stock market outlook differs depending on the links in the AI value chain: the stock prices of semiconductor equipment manufacturers (Nvidia in the USA, TSMC in Taiwan, Samsung in Korea) and those of electricity suppliers are on a positive trend; those of data, computing, storage and rental (cloud) centers are uneven; software publishers, such as the GAFA companies, are more uncertain, as are those of European equipment manufacturers (ASML and STMicroelectronics).
The AI ecosystem seems to be threatened by the “Thucydides trap”, whereby a rivalry between a leader and its followers often leads to takeovers and sometimes conflicts. The trap threatens industry leaders such as Open AI and Anthropic, who are competing with several application developers, but also American leaders who are being challenged by Chinese designers such as MiniMax M3 and DeepSeek V4 Pro. Western and Asian companies are increasingly testing Chinese applications, which are less expensive in terms of tokens and more energy-efficient. They are also striving to diversify their sources of supply for equipment and applications, for fear of higher fees and a US or Chinese embargo on certain applications. Finally, in Europe, designers and users may be taxed by the governments of the Member States in order to contribute to public investments in the infrastructure (electricity, water, access routes) of digital platforms.
For all these reasons, the prospects, particularly the financial ones, of the AI ecosystem can be described as a “black swan” in the sense of Taleb.