Intimidation is a rational act. It is part of a conflict logic that does not exclude negotiation, but only on condition that it takes place according to the terms and conditions imposed by the intimidator. When the latter relies on a tradition of extraterritorial sanctions against the global financial system, it’s all very well to pretend that Donald Trump is losing his mind: no leader is insane in the sense of any mental disorder. Describing a decision as “crazy” or “irrational” is misleadingly easy. On the other hand, says Frédéric Charillon, analyzing behavior from the angle of a possible intimidation strategy seems more relevant. The phenomenon of the “American red pangolin” and the state of “flabbergastedness” conceded by the French minister recently interviewed, have difficulty masking an ignorance of international relations as transcribed in the famous essay by Thomas Schelling, Nobel Prize winner in economics in 2005 (for a work published in 1960!): the strategy of conflict. On the subject of extraterritoriality, let’s cite a few precedents: the Helms-Burton and Amato-Kennedy Acts, passed in 1996 under President Clinton, sanction foreign companies trading with Cuba, Venezuela or Iran; the Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014 under Obama targets the sectors of the
ussia’s energy, defense and financial sectors. As for Trump’s supposed irrationality, it’s worth remembering that the “Madman in Chief” was none other than Richard Nixon when he suggested that his behavior could be dangerously unpredictable during the Vietnam War – at the risk of unleashing nuclear fire (less ambitious, Donald Trump merely mentioned the possibility of shooting someone Fifth Avenue without losing votes).
The outcome? Nobody knows at this stage… Besides, the book ends with a “Provisional Conclusion”. But let’s not forget that, for Schelling, conflict is inseparable from negotiation: “to study conflict strategy is first and foremost to become aware of the fact that most conflict situations are also negotiation situations.” In his view, “the search for an eventual agreement becomes the major element of conflict”.
Frédéric CHARILLON is Professor of Political Science at the University of Auvergne and Associate Researcher at the Centre Thucydide – analysis and research in international relations, Université Panthéon – Assas (Paris II)
Alain Brunet
