On 5 March 1946, Winston Churchill gave a speech in which he said, “I do not believe that Soviet Russia desires war; what she desires is the fruits of war and the indefinite expansion of her power and doctrines. Our difficulties and dangers will not disappear if we turn a blind eye, if we wait to see what happens, or if we pursue a policy of appeasement.”
These reflections from another era are striking in their relevance today. The Kremlin wants to once again become the feared power it was in the past by reaffirming its rights over lands considered to be ancestral. Faced with the growing dangers, it is imperative to have a clear understanding of the state of the threat, the adversary’s modes of action, our interpretative biases and our level of preparedness.
A far more insidious danger is also to be feared: that of an alteration of democratic systems, as artificial intelligence will enable targeting of unprecedented precision and manipulation of information of unsuspected sophistication. For Ukraine, this is a war of national liberation, a struggle for the survival of the state and a fight for freedom, since the Russian President denies the existence of the Ukrainian nation. The war has forged a new Ukraine – battle-hardened, exhausted, but united and resolute. The Kremlin is using the war in Ukraine to stage its confrontation with Western countries and to exacerbate divisions in the world.
What is certain is that the current confrontation is not only about the survival of Ukraine and the security of Europe, but also about the sustainability of liberal democracy, which is now under attack from all sides. Faced with a danger that is admittedly imprecise but nonetheless glaring, it is essential to deal with the most urgent issues; imagining the worst is an absolute imperative. Without this effort of imagination and a surge of willpower, there is a great risk of being caught off guard.
Because Russia is actively preparing for the possibility of the war spreading to Europe. Several indicators show that Russia is preparing for a prolonged war:
The defence budget, which accounts for 38% of Russia’s budget, shows that the Kremlin’s priority is to continue the war. It is rearming at full speed while organising itself to improve its supplies and armaments: it manufactures 300 tanks per year – France, which is the best equipped, has 215 Leclerc tanks. Russia is increasing the size of its army: 600,000 soldiers compared to 150,000 before the war in Ukraine. Lifting the sanctions would give the Russian economy a breath of fresh air.
A militarist regime thrives on war; there are many actions that are already affecting Europe, and France in particular. There are also attacks on the integrity of public debate aimed at shaping public opinion, and, above all, attacks on national cohesion.
Europe must prepare for a long-drawn-out confrontation in which no holds are barred.
Céline Marangé
is a researcher on Russia, Ukraine and Belarus at the Strategic Research Institute
Institute of the École Militaire, and an associate member of the Research Centre for
Slavic History (Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne University)
Reading notes prepared by Michel Gabet