In an incisive essay with a deliberately provocative title, Serge Eric Menye questions the destiny of the African continent: Will Africa be the catastrophe of the 21st century? The book, short in volume but dense in its purpose, seeks to break a narrative that has dominated media and institutional discourse for more than fifteen years. We remember, in fact, the enthusiasm aroused in the early 2010s by a study by the consulting firm McKinsey, by the forecasts of the African Development Bank, and by an often fiercely optimistic economic press: this continent was then presented as the “next Eldorado”, the future Asian relay of global growth.
However, Menye intends to demonstrate that this perspective is illusory. His diagnosis is clear: far from being the radiant future that was announced, Africa has become bogged down in a vicious cycle of poverty, poor governance, and conflict. Far from benefiting from decades of global growth and the massive decline in poverty observed elsewhere, the African continent has experienced a worsening of its difficulties. The author, however, does not limit himself to making this grim observation. By adopting a three-part structure, identifying the causes of endemic poverty, designating responsibilities, highlighting strengths and prospects, he proposes a dialectical reading: after the presentation of defects and failures, come the immense resources and positive examples that allow us to believe that another path remains possible.
- The Origins of Endemic Poverty
The first part of the book meticulously describes the obstacles that explain the rooting of poverty. Africa, explains Menye, has missed all the “trains” of global growth over the last fifty years: the globalization of trade, the digital revolution, the digitization of economies. While Asia has been able to take advantage of these dynamics to become a major player, Africa has remained on the sidelines. Its economies remain largely archaic, focused on the export of raw materials, unable to generate added value and create massive jobs. The case of Nigeria is revealing: the continent’s leading oil producer, it still imports 90% of its gasoline needs, due to a lack of refining infrastructure.
This economic structure explains the persistent weakness of growth, too modest to absorb the demographic pressure. The African population, estimated at 1.5 billion today, is expected to reach 4.5 billion in 2100. This demographic shock dilutes all efforts: every investment in education, every progress in health, is neutralized by the constant increase in the number of potential beneficiaries.
The figures put forward by the author are striking. In 1960, 10% of the world’s poor lived in Africa. In 2000, the proportion reached 60%. And according to projections, by 2030, 90% of people living in extreme poverty will be African. This historic reversal illustrates the continent’s failure to benefit from the global dynamics that have, on the whole, massively reduced poverty elsewhere.
Added to this is a dramatic illiteracy, which still affects more than half of the population. Without education, no economic modernization is possible. The lack of infrastructure, roads, electricity, hospitals, schools, slows down any industrialization.
The crushing debt is another burden. The sums spent on repayment deprive states of the means necessary to finance education, health, or critical infrastructure. Chronic indebtedness thus locks many African countries into a vicious circle: without investment, growth remains weak, and without growth, debt cannot be absorbed.
To these structural handicaps is added the scourge of armed conflicts. For territories, resources, or identity rivalries, wars erupt with disconcerting regularity. These clashes leave economies bled dry, destroy scarce infrastructure, cause massive population displacements, and exacerbate food crises. The author cites a frightening figure: since 1990, these conflicts have cost the continent about 300 billion dollars. However, no one can build economic activity without the indispensable confidence provided by security and civil peace.
Endemic corruption completes this picture. It affects all spheres of society and costs about 25% of the wealth produced each year. In such contexts, foreign investment is scarce, entrepreneurship is withering and the informal economy is proliferating. This informal sector, which is the majority, is a real poverty trap: low wages, lack of social protection, non-existent taxation, illegal or dangerous activities for health. It is on this soil that mafias, arms and drug trafficking, counterfeit medicines (responsible for nearly half a million deaths each year according to the UN), and the financing of terrorism thrive.
The political situation is hardly more reassuring. In many countries, regimes are authoritarian, institutions are weak, and elites are predatory. Power, often monopolized by dynasties, is not based on merit or competence. Corruption, cronyism, and massive embezzlement of public money widen the gap between leaders and populations.
Some exceptions exist, however: Botswana, Ghana, Senegal, Namibia, Somaliland, and Rwanda have each, in their own way, succeeded in establishing a more stable and democratic governance. But these examples remain in the minority and their effects, although real, are still limited on the continent.
II. Responsibilities for the African disaster
In the second part, Serge Eric Menye lists those responsible for this situation. He goes beyond the simplistic explanations that attribute all of Africa’s difficulties to colonization or slavery. Certainly, these phenomena have deeply marked the continent, but they are not enough to explain the current inability to develop. The real difference, he insists, lies in governance.
The generation gap is huge between a young population, the youngest in the world with a median age of less than twenty years, and older leaders, often in power for decades. The latter conceive of power as a “jackpot”, an opportunity for unlimited personal enrichment. The misappropriations and personal fortunes of the leaders, invested in luxury goods abroad, illustrate this drift. Between 2000 and 2015, no less than 836 billion dollars left Africa illegally, more than the total stock of external debt in 2018 (770 billion).
But the African elites are not the only ones responsible. External powers, including France, the United States, Russia, Turkey and China, as well as international institutions, play a role deemed “toxic”. Their interventions are not neutral. They sometimes fuel conflicts, sometimes support corrupt regimes, and exploit resources. Moreover, international aid, often praised, often turns out to be an instrument of dependence rather than a lever of emancipation. The UN missions themselves, supposed to ensure peace, are regularly criticized for their inefficiency or even their partiality.
III. Africa’s Resources and Assets
In the third part, the author deploys an inventory of African resources. The contrast is striking between this abundance and the poverty observed.
The continent covers nearly 30 million square kilometers, or one fifth of the world’s landmass, and is home to 60% of the world’s unused arable land, offering enormous agricultural potential. Its many forests are home to precious tree species, a flora of more than 60,000 species, including nearly 4,000 medicinal plants. Its rich and varied fauna, ranging from tropical areas to deserts, represents a first-rate ecological and tourist resource.
Africa also has a unique energy potential. Its rivers and streams allow for the development of abundant hydroelectricity. Its sunshine, the highest in the world, represents 40% of the world’s solar potential. As for its fisheries resources, they could generate more than $24 billion in annual revenue if properly exploited, instead of largely benefiting foreign fleets.
Underground, the African subsoil is a real “raw materials bank”: 60% of the world’s manganese, 70% of cobalt, 85% of platinum, 40% of gold, as well as considerable reserves of copper, nickel, uranium and coltan. These minerals are essential for advanced industries, energy transition and the digital revolution.
Human resources are equally impressive. With 1.5 billion inhabitants today and rapid growth, Africa will represent a quarter of the world’s population by 2050. Its population is young, diverse, rich in more than 2,000 languages and an unparalleled cultural variety.
The continent is also the cradle of humanity and a major center of artistic creativity. Its music, dances, and visual arts have influenced world culture. Traditional African culture also values intergenerational respect and the transmission of knowledge, conferring a social and anthropological depth that contrasts with the disintegration of ties in other regions of the world.
Finally, Africa occupies a strategic geographical position, at the crossroads of the major maritime routes linking Europe, Asia and the Americas. More than 90% of world trade is carried by sea, and the continent, with its coasts and ports, could become a hub of international trade.
IV. What are the prospects?
The question then becomes that of the mobilization of these assets. The author insists on several levers: modernizing agriculture and livestock; locally transforming mineral resources to create added value; investing heavily in education and health; developing modern infrastructure; resolutely fighting against counterfeit medicines, trafficking, and corruption; encouraging entrepreneurship, innovation, and research; promoting tourism and even sports as a vector of development.
Examples prove that this path is possible. Rwanda, despite its lack of abundant natural resources, has relied on political stability and innovation. Botswana has been able to take advantage of its resources through rigorous governance. Ghana and Namibia are making progress in strengthening democracy and energy. Benin is experimenting with sustainable agroecology and a nascent industry. Ethiopia has made its airline a major player in the African sky. Finally, the creation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the Pan-African Payment System (PAPSS) paves the way for an integrated market and greater financial autonomy.
Conclusion
Reading this essay leaves the reader torn between fear and hope. Fear, in the face of a continent undermined by poverty, conflict, corruption and democratic deficit. Hope, because never has a continent had so many assets and resources, whether natural, human or cultural.
In his conclusion, Menye qualifies the debate between Afro-pessimism and Afro-optimism. He recalls that the latter has fueled a real breath of hope, by valuing the continent’s cultural creativity, technological innovations, and entrepreneurial initiatives. But he insists that these advances remain fragile, because they face persistent structural challenges: political instability, illiteracy, debt, social inequalities, and dependence on raw materials. The promises of the AfCFTA or Mobile Money are not enough, if they are not accompanied by deep and lasting reforms.
The author then pleads for a lucid Afro-optimism, which is based on tangible and verifiable progress. Three levers are put forward:
– the construction of transparent and fair institutions, capable of effectively fighting against corruption;
– the empowerment of a youth that constitutes the majority of the African population and whose potential for transformation is immense;
– regional integration, the only way to give the continent sufficient economic weight in globalization.
Added to this is the need for equitable international partnerships, based on reciprocity and the end of dependence.
Thus, Africa is truly at a crossroads. If the structural blockages persist, it risks confirming the dark scenario outlined by the title of the book. But if courageous reforms are implemented, if the youth are supported and if resources are valued in a fair and sustainable manner, then Afro-optimism can cease to be mere rhetoric and become a credible horizon.
Serge Eric Menye, born in Cameroon, studied business and economics in France. He is a lecturer and consultant specializing in advisory missions in Africa, on country opportunities and risks. He is the author of several articles published in Les Echos, Jeune Afrique, Forbes, and La Tribune, as well as the essay L’Afrique face au cynisme climatique (2023).
Yoann Lopez Nguyen