What if power no longer belonged to the great nations? Nicolas Tenzer is certain: the days of the traditional great powers are numbered. Trump’s United States has broken the Atlantic Alliance; China, which remains a predatory power, is bogged down in its internal contradictions; Russia is facing a “no future” scenario.
There is now a persistent belief in many diplomatic circles that international politics is essentially determined by the major powers and their games. Other countries are certainly not unimportant in this conventional view, and their policies may sometimes be disruptive, but they never have the final say! However, the return to “American greatness,” which must be based on a rapprochement with China, heralds America’s decline. The major countries that are members of the Security Council have cherished the idea of a closed club of five all the more because it projected an image as flattering as precarious makeup! However, playing on permanent ambiguity gives the illusion of power in the absence of confidence, but hides a lack of will. At the same time, some describe Russia as a paper tiger, and it is not clear that the prediction of China becoming the world’s leading economic, technological, and military power by 2049 will come true!
The possible or even emerging multipolarity of the world would lead to the emergence of revisionist states.
The radical fragmentation of the poles could also bring about freedom. More agile players ARE likely to reinvent the rules of the international game: Estonia, a pioneer in warning about Europe’s security, Turkey if it manages to choose sides, Syria freed from its criminal occupations, but also the medium-sized powers of Central and Eastern Asia. Together, the democracies of the North, South, and East will join forces against the revisionist powers. Together, they will be able to stand up to the pseudo-empires. France and the United Kingdom will have to play a leading role in this realignment. As for Ukraine, its heroic resistance demonstrates the ability of medium-sized states to stand up to the old powers. Through an analysis of the new balance of power, Nicolas Tenzer reveals how these “intermediate” states are redrawing the map of the world: they are creating unprecedented alliances, developing original strategies of influence, and proving that it is possible to exert greater influence on the international stage without being a superpower. Tomorrow, world security and the freedom of peoples will depend on the determination of small and medium-sized nations. The Trump episode may have been the moment when this realization dawned.
The author reviews the power limitations of post-colonial states, China, the United States, India, African disorganization, and the lack of strategy in Middle Eastern countries.
At the same time, resistance among peoples is emerging, along with a so-called “Ukrainian” model for the nation of the future.
So: G-Zero or G-Infinity? How can stability be built? The signal sent by a Ukrainian victory will undoubtedly be decisive, both symbolically and in practice, and could inspire others to follow suit. This victory is therefore existential for Europe and other medium-sized powers! The strength of an armed people is underestimated until its next victories.
While in the old world it was customary to consider that the great powers formed an axis of security, “tomorrow’s security and freedom will come through small and medium-sized states.”
The book is supported by highly relevant observations thanks to the author’s geopolitical erudition. Like any projection, the book’s conclusions will not necessarily prove true, but they may.
This book is necessary to help us escape the media chaos and take a step back. Readers will gain information and reasoning that will allow them to refine their own views. Whether you agree with the thesis or not, it must be known. In the dark environment of a world at war, this book is a tunnel at the end of which there is a legitimate element of optimism.
Dominique CHESNEAU