The book is in the form of a lecture on diplomatic negotiation aimed at overcoming the conventional approaches in use in all embassies. The author apparently delivers his (overly) rich experience of diplomacy in order to “decode the paradigms” that underlie international relations, to deduce that the “disruptive diplomacy” initiated by Donald Trump constitutes an irreversible “diplomatic revolution”. The latter is based on “the Art of Calculated Unpredictability”, which exploits uncertainty as a strategic lever, and “orchestrates new unexpected diplomatic pivots”. The approach, accompanied by direct language and a sometimes brutal style, aims to “reorient the negotiation” by breaking its formal framework and to give priority to efficiency over the maintenance of established positions and respect for principles. It favors bilateral relations over multilateral exchanges, inter-state dialogues over international forums. It also involves “the conquest of the information space” (including messages in the press and social networks, before, during, and after the diplomatic agenda. However, it must be applied “intelligently” and must be adapted to the cultural context of each negotiation, in order to avoid the authors being discredited.
The author proposes that France adopt the “Trumpian strategy” without delay in order to preserve its diplomatic heritage and maintain its influence in the world. This advice is all the more risky as the long-term benefits of the “Trumpian method” have not yet been demonstrated, which has already resulted in the reform of the “Global South” bloc of countries. The legendary caution of diplomats invites us to seek a compromise between the conventional protocol and the new disruptive method.
Geoffrey Bertrand is apparently a pseudonym that masks the identity of a diplomat or consultant, a journalist or a trainer in geopolitics and/or negotiation techniques… unless it covers a clever simulation designed by an AI algorithm that would have passed the Turing test.
Jean-Jacques Pluchart